October 22, 2026: India’s crude oil import bill surged 46.3 percent to $90.6 billion during April–September on higher global prices even as volumes remained largely flat from the year-ago period, data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) shows.

On October 21, Brent crude was trading higher at around $110 a barrel on supply concerns, with traders wary of Red Sea shipping risks and threats to oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia from Iran-backed Houthi rebels.

India imported 122.7 million tonnes of oil during April-September, largely unchanged from 121.8 million tonnes in the previous year.

In September, the import bill jumped 46.6 percent to $15.4 billion, while volumes were up 6.8 percent at 21.7 million tonnes.

The market still appears to be pricing in high risks of renewed, widespread crude supply losses from West Asia, given multiple escalating factors, Samer Hasn, senior market analyst at XS.com, a global fintech and online brokerage firm.

The risks of supply disruption could remain the main obsession, “overriding optimism that might stem from any temporary measures aimed at lowering prices through inventory releases or sanctions waiver for Russia, as well as diminishing the optimism surrounding the restoration of flows from the region to pre-war levels”, Hasn said

Renewed hostilities between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz and new round of attacks by Houthi rebels on Saudi energy infrastructure have pushed crude prices back up, reversing a decline from the peak of the West Asia conflict.

The average price of Indian crude basket has risen to $121.25 a barrel in October from $65.08 from last year.

In September, too, the average price stood at $116.09 against $69.61 in September 2025, PPAC data shows.

India is the world's third-largest importer of crude, meeting more than 85 percent of its needs through imports.

The bigger risk for India is not the availability of crude but persistently higher landed prices that can inflate the import bill, widen the current account deficit and weigh on the broader economy, analysts say.

The country imports around 1.8-2 billion barrels of crude annually and every $1-a-barrel increase in price raises the country's import bill by up to $2 billion a year.

S&P Global Energy expects crude to remain in the $80-100 range through 2027, with Brent averaging around $90 or higher for the remaining 2026 and $86 next year, $5 higher than its previous outlook.

“Any further escalation or incidents in the region could push oil prices higher. Against this backdrop, the risk of higher volatility remains present in the sessions ahead,” said Paolo Broccardo, CEO at BankPro.

(Source: Moneycontrol)